The Alberta PC Leadership Contest: Predictions

I could be like the pundits in the media and wait until after the results for the Alberta leadership vote are in, and then write about how the results were predictable, but that just isn't very sporting. So I'll go through some of the relevant variables and make my prediction in advance of the voting.

The Edmonton Journal/Calgary Herald published the results of a poll of PC party members yesterday. The publishers are either fools or they are trying to manipulate the outcome of the vote.

The voting list obtained by the Journal/Herald was not a complete list but rather a biased list. The stated size of the list was about 22 000. Given that normal PC membership is about 12 000, that means that the list used by Environics had about 10 000 additional names added to it. That number of additional members leads me to believe that the list provided to the Journal/Herald was supplied by the Allison Redford campaign. I have no evidence for this, it is just speculation.

That Allison Redford did so well in the poll supports my view that her campaign leaked the list.

Whichever campaign leaked the list, the sample would have been biased towards supporters of that candidate. Which really only leaves the Gary Mar and Allison Redford campaigns.

Regardless of which campaign provided the list, it was statistically invalid list from which to do a poll and Environics and the Journal/Herald should be embarrassed to have their names attached to such a mockery of a poll.

A better indicator of how the campaigns are doing is their fund raising results.

In this measure Ted Morton is the clear winner, with Doug Horner a clear second. The big difference between the two is that Doug Horner was not able to get the large corporate donations. This is not a political liability in Alberta.

That Gary Mar and Allison Redford trailed well behind Doug Horner, and relied significantly on corporate donations strongly suggests that their campaigns do not have the momentum that their spin teams are suggesting.

Another significant indicator is MLA support. Doug Horner, Ted Morton, and Gar Mar are all fairly close in terms of the number of MLA's supporting them.

Not all MLA's are equal however. Some MLA's have a lot of influence in their constituencies, with large teams of volunteers available to get people out to vote.

Other MLA's on the other hand have no organization to speak of, their constituency organization is little more than their immediate family members, and consequently bring no more than a handful of votes with them. They are looking to ride the coat tails of the victor into cabinet.

When I look down the list of which MLA's are supporting which candidates, their is a clear difference in the quality of the campaign teams that the MLA's bring with them. On this measure Doug Horner is far in the lead. Most of the MLA's supporting him have large well organized constituency organizations that are well funded with motivated volunteers. This is a big advantage for Doug Horner.

Ted Morton also has a significant number of MLA's who bring a lot to the effort but I am a little bit surprised that he did not attract more of them to his campaign. I will discuss a possible reason for this later.

Too many of the MLA's backing Gary Mar do not bring a lot of people with them. They are hoping that Mr. Mar will win the election for them next time around.

The other variable is rural vs. urban constituencies. The urban based media frequently alludes to the fact that the PC party is a 'rural' party, while the province is primarily an urban one. This assumes that all citizens are equally likely to be voters. This is a false assumption. Rural citizens are more likely to vote than urban citizens and are also more likely to be politically active. The PC's win because they do not ignore rural votes in an effort to cater to citizens who aren't going to vote no matter what is done for them.

When you look at the rural/urban split for MLA's, Doug Horner has the clear lead with Ted Morton a distant second. Ted Morton is stronger in the cities, but many of those areas will produce well wishers, not supporters.

So when I do my calculations it appears that Ted Morton and Doug Horner are going neck and neck with Gary Mar following. Allison Redford is a clear fourth with Rick Orman and Doug Griffiths are bringing up the rear. The three candidates emerging from the first vote therefore will be Doug Horner, Ted Morton and Gary Mar.

Having watched the candidates I will review their weaknesses and what could cause them to lose a step at the worst possible time. Everyone knows the good points about the candidates: they've been selling everyone on their strengths all summer.

Ted Morton has a difficult time overcoming his 'smartest guy in the room' disease. This is one of the things that repeatedly comes up with everyone who has concerns about Mr. Morton. People who have had the pleasure, or misfortune, of being involved in group discussion with him feel that he is not willing to take the time to convince people that he is the smartest guy at the table, he just gets annoyed, tells people they are wrong and leaves them stewing. This is okay for a university professor, but a political leader must spend the time to 'convince' people. Issuing orders and expecting the peons to follow them is not leading, it is ruling. This may be why he did not get more support from the MLA's. The people who had the opportunity to work with him were not thrilled by the idea of working for him.

Doug Horner has been criticized for being bland. I know Mr. Horner a little bit, I don't think this is true. The bigger issue for Doug is whether or not he has the 'edge' for the top job. This is that little bit of ruthlessness that a leader needs to succeed. That willingness to look someone in the eye, stick the knife in and twist (metaphorically speaking). Ed Stelmach was criticized for not having this 'edge' either but this is untrue. Mr. Stelmach very much had an edge but it did not come out unless he was just a little bit angry: think the last week of the last provincial election when he 'took the gloves off”.

Gary Mar suffers seems like a very charming individual and he seems to have the necessary 'edge' as well. The problem with Mr. Mar is that he is an 'establishment' candidate. Mr. Mar is funded by corporations, supported by long time party organizers, and is running a slick, professional campaign. These are all liabilities in Alberta, not advantages. For all Mr. Mar's talk about listening to Albertans, many Albertans are wondering if they can even relate to the life that Mr. Mar has lived or worse, if Mr. Mar can relate to the life that working class Albertans live.

So let's be brave here and make some numerical predictions. Doug Horner will emerge on top by less than half a percentage point over Ted Morton. Both of them will poll around 31%. Gary Mar will poll just under 25%. Allison Redford will be in the 10-12% range. The others will be left on the outside looking in. We will have to wait until the weekend to see if I am psychic or just psycho for putting my prediction up where everyone can read it and remind me about it later.